Defense contractors that still buy tungsten, germanium, rare earths or other covered materials from China, Russia, North Korea or Iran are about to lose the routine waivers that kept those parts flowing, and the Army says it expects the cutoff to bite. Breaking Defense reported that Army Materiel Command anticipates "some impact" when Executive Order 14415's January 2027 deadline arrives, while industry groups say they still do not know what an acceptable mitigation plan looks like.
President Trump signed the order, "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials," on July 20, 2026, according to a client alert from law firm Orrick. It directs the Secretary of War and the secretaries of the military departments to stop issuing waivers under 10 U.S.C. § 4872(c)(1) for covered materials from covered countries, effective January 1, 2027.
How EO 14415 Closes the Section 4872 Waiver Door
Section 4872 bars the Department of War from acquiring certain materials sourced from "covered countries." The statute's subsection (c)(1) has long let the Secretary waive that prohibition when compliant material was unavailable or national security required it. Orrick's alert summarizes the change bluntly: "Executive Order 14415 does not repeal the waiver authority, but it functionally eliminates routine access to it."
After January 1, waivers will issue only if a contractor submits a formal mitigation plan that the Secretary or a designee accepts. Per Orrick, that plan must:
- Identify the specific source of non-compliant material;
- Document exhaustive efforts to acquire compliant material, or show that compliant material was not available;
- Describe the steps the contractor will take to remove the non-compliant material from its supply chains; and
- Set a strict projected timeline for complete implementation.
The order reaches well below the prime. Within 180 days of the order, the Secretary must require all prime contractors and subcontractors at any tier to submit a complete indentured bill of materials that traces components, parts, equipment, software and materials back to the origin of the raw materials, Orrick wrote. Contractors must also set written procedures to vet suppliers for risks such as financial distress and foreign ownership or control.
The order carries teeth. Orrick says it directs the Secretary to take all appropriate contractual remedies for fraud or willful noncompliance with mitigation plans and authorizes referral to the Attorney General for investigation and possible prosecution. It also carves out materials sourced through the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, known as "Project Vault," and from certain projects financed, guaranteed or insured by the Export-Import Bank or the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, or supported by the Departments of State, War, Commerce or Energy.
Why the Army Expects 'Some Impact' but No Cliff in January
Liz Miranda, Army Materiel Command's executive deputy to the commanding general, told the Association of the U.S. Army conference that mapping supply chains down to the raw-material level "is no easy task."
"We’re working towards that. Are we there yet? No. So we are going to see some impact come January," she said, according to Breaking Defense.
Miranda said she does not anticipate any "off the cliff" outcomes that would be catastrophic for the service. Instead, she described "a gradual holding all of us accountable to mitigating those areas where we know we we have risk because we’re dependent on foreign adversaries."
She pointed to the Army's announcement earlier in the week of a "manufacturing rodeo," intended to expose supply chain and manufacturing risks the service may not know about. "Unfortunately, we cannot insource all of the parts that are required — specifically for drone dominance," Miranda said.
Tungsten and Germanium: Where China's Grip Meets Weapons Programs
The covered minerals sit inside systems the Army is trying to field quickly. Breaking Defense noted that tungsten alloys go into engine components and hypersonics, and germanium goes into thermal imaging systems. China is the dominant producer of both, according to a September report by the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA).
Orrick's list of exposed materials runs wider: specialty metals such as titanium, steel alloys, zirconium and hafnium; tungsten and tungsten heavy alloys; rare earth elements including neodymium, dysprosium and terbium; and molybdenum, gallium, germanium and other materials added by the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act. The firm flagged aerospace and defense manufacturing, missile and munitions production, semiconductor fabrication, advanced electronics and military energy storage as sectors with particularly high exposure.
Will Mitigation Plans Arrive Before Domestic Supply Does?
AIA argues that waivers will remain necessary for years because domestic supply cannot meet demand. Its September report found that "Significant domestic processing, refining, and magnet production capacity for aerospace-grade materials is not expected to be available until 2028 or later," with certification and qualification work potentially pushing that date further out.
Dak Hardwick, AIA's vice president of international affairs, said the order makes those problems "more acute" because waivers now hinge on an approved mitigation plan, with little government feedback on what qualifies. "Industry is still looking for clarity around the mitigation-plan standard and processing timelines," he said.
The Pentagon has signaled some flexibility. In a July interview with Breaking Defense, Michael Cadenazzi, the assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy, said the department would work with companies that need waivers if they are making a good-faith effort to find new sources. "And if there’s a gap, a legitimate gap, [and] you have a plan and you need a window to see you through [to] bridge that gap, that’s what we want to know," he said.
What It Means for Contractors
With the deadline less than three months away, the waiver is no longer a paperwork step; it is a negotiated plan that the government must accept. Companies that cannot show compliant sourcing face several risks Orrick identified: inability to deliver compliant material may amount to a material breach or trigger termination for default, inaccurate sourcing representations and certifications can create False Claims Act exposure, and non-compliance at any tier flows up to the prime.
Orrick recommends that contractors map supply chains for all covered materials through Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers, identify every contract carrying Section 4872 requirements, draft mitigation plans that meet the order's four-part standard, and submit waiver requests with those plans before January 1. It also advises updating DFARS representations and certifications and keeping contemporaneous records strong enough to answer FCA inquiries.
Firms already sourcing through Project Vault or through projects backed by EXIM or DFC may have a pathway outside the waiver process entirely, Orrick noted. For everyone else, the open question is the one Hardwick raised: what the government will accept as a plan, and how fast it will decide. Primes should expect bill-of-materials demands to cascade to their suppliers as the 180-day tracing requirement takes hold.
